Halfway through the first quarter of 2026, the St. Augustine rental market is best described as resilient, moderating, and selectively competitive. The post-pandemic frenzy that pushed rents up 20–30% in 2021–2022 has long since cooled. What we have now is a market that rewards correctly-priced properties with fast placements and punishes wishful thinking with extended vacancy.
Here's what we're seeing on the ground in St. Johns County, and how it compares to the Northeast Florida picture.
Vacancy Rates
St. Johns County came into 2026 with a vacancy rate hovering around 4.8% — tight by historical standards, though notably higher than the sub-3% we saw at the peak in 2021–2022. That swing reflects a meaningful supply-side shift: new construction in Nocatee, Rivertown, and the World Golf Village corridor has added inventory, and some investor-purchased short-term rentals have returned to the long-term market as the STR economics softened.
The practical implication: a well-priced rental in a desirable sub-market (St. Augustine Beach, Davis Shores, Palencia) still moves in under two weeks. Properties priced 8–12% above market are sitting 30–45+ days. The market has become more price-sensitive, not less — which means the 2022 strategy of listing high and waiting no longer works.
Average Rents by Bedroom Count — Q1 2026
| Bedroom Count | St. Johns County Median | Q4 2025 Median | YoY Change | Jacksonville MSA Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio / 1BR | $1,550 | $1,520 | +2.0% | $1,380 |
| 2BR | $2,050 | $1,990 | +3.0% | $1,720 |
| 3BR | $2,475 | $2,395 | +3.3% | $2,050 |
| 4BR+ | $3,100 | $2,980 | +4.0% | $2,520 |
St. Johns County continues to command a meaningful premium over the Jacksonville MSA — running 10–25% higher depending on bedroom count. That premium reflects the school district quality (consistently A-rated), the lower crime profile relative to Duval County, and the sustained demand from remote workers and retirees who have discretionary income and specific lifestyle preferences.
Sub-Market Breakdown
St. Augustine Beach / Anastasia Island
Remains the highest-demand corridor in the county. 2BR units in good condition are pricing $2,100–$2,600, with beachfront or ocean-view units regularly exceeding $2,800. Vacancy is minimal. Competition among applicants is active. Summer 2026 looks very similar to summer 2025 in this area.
Historic District / Davis Shores
Strong demand, particularly from professionals who value walkability and cultural access. 2BR units typically $1,900–$2,300. The Bridge of Lions drawbridge is still not a deterrent. Inventory is limited by the character of the housing stock — not a lot of new construction here, which keeps supply tight.
Nocatee / Ponte Vedra
The fastest-growing sub-market in terms of new supply. 3BR+ single-family homes dominate the inventory. Pricing $2,600–$3,400 for larger homes. Competition from new construction has moderated rents slightly from 2024 peaks, but school district quality keeps demand consistent. This is the most supply-affected sub-market in the county.
World Golf Village / International Golf Drive Corridor
Strong family demographic, great schools, longer commutes to downtown. 3BR median around $2,300–$2,600. Slower to lease than coastal properties but stable. If you price correctly and show the property well, you'll find a good tenant.
West St. Augustine / CR-210 Corridor
The most price-accessible part of the county. 2BR units $1,650–$2,000. Faster leases at the lower end of that range. Growing population from the SR-9B and I-95 interchange development. Good long-term fundamentals as the workforce housing layer of the county.
What's Driving Demand in 2026
- Remote work persistence. St. Augustine continues to attract remote workers from higher-cost metros (Atlanta, Charlotte, South Florida) who can afford St. Johns County rents on northern salaries. This cohort is rent-stable and quality-conscious.
- Interest rate lock-in effect. Homeowners with 2020–2021 mortgages at 2.5–3.5% are not selling. This removes a portion of the typical "renter converts to buyer" pipeline from the market, keeping rental demand elevated.
- School district effect. Families moving to St. Johns County for the schools become multi-year tenants. Once placed, they stay — which means turnover is lower than in markets without this quality differential.
- Tourism economy employment. St. Augustine's hospitality and service sector is healthy. Workers in this sector form a consistent segment of the 1BR–2BR rental market.
Summer 2026 Outlook
We expect the summer leasing season to be active but not frenzied. Vacancy will tick lower May–July as the school-year-driven move cycle peaks. Properties that come to market in March–May with correct pricing will see the best results. Properties held over from January–February with inflated pricing will continue to sit.
The moderating trend in rent growth (3–4% YoY vs. 15–20% YoY in 2022) is healthy and sustainable. We do not anticipate meaningful rent decreases — the demand fundamentals in St. Johns County are too strong. But the era of automatic annual 10%+ increases as an owner strategy is over. Markets, predictably, corrected for that.
The Bottom Line
St. Johns County remains one of the stronger rental markets in Northeast Florida by almost every metric — vacancy, rent levels, demand quality, and tenant stability. It is not immune to broader market forces, and it is not the 2022 market. But for property owners who are pricing correctly and managing proactively, it continues to produce solid returns.
If you want a property-specific analysis rather than market-level data, a free rental analysis gives you the actual comp picture for your address and sub-market.